In a December 5, 1996 speech, former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan, used the phrase "irrational exuberance" to warn against unduly escalating asset prices. Hours later, stock markets throughout the world reacted to Greenspan's speech with the Japanese and Hong Kong bourses falling 3 per cent and markets in the United Kingdom, Germany and the United States falling by between 2 and 4 per cent.
The antonym of irrational exuberance is irrational fear, another aspect of irrationality and sometimes speculative investor behaviour which can result in undue losses.
For example, many nervous and panicky investors bailed out on their investments last year when markets were close to the bottom in the first quarter. As a result, they suffered losses and missed the subsequent strong market recovery which resulted in gains of more than 100 per cent in some instances.
Similarly, many investors who were sitting on cash completely missed the boat, failing to buy when valuations were extremely low and attractive. Even the savviest investor lost courage in the overwhelming pessimism that permeated markets, passing over incredible opportunities.
The point is that in the face of mass market fear, many lose the courage to sit through a major market correction, resulting in mass selling, which drives prices down and increase losses. Many let their emotions drive investment decisions, abandoning long held investment strategies and research methodologies, thus passing up on investments that they would have seized instantly at any other point in time.
Parallel this to the current Eurozone debt crisis that is roiling world markets. As problems in the Eurozone weigh on investor sentiment and risk appetite, there will be more volatility and possibly weakness in the markets.
However, this is unlikely to be the start of a bear market if investors keep the big picture in mind. Fundamentals and valuations are at reasonable levels, and with the earnings-recovery story in the U.S. and Asia gaining momentum, investors who are sitting on cash and who can stomach the short-term volatility, can look to buck the trend and buy gradually over the coming months. |